Photo of David Bell courtesy of WikiMedia.
by Chris Ball
Loveland, Ohio – Any time a season doesn’t go to plan, and that’s exactly what is happening in 2024 for the Cincinnati Reds, there is a question of where the responsibility for it rests. No answer in sports is simple, which is especially true for baseball. Success in Major League Baseball for small to mid-market teams is not easy. It requires foresight in draft picks and trades for prospects, smart and economically feasible free agent signings, and a heavy dose of luck with respect to both injuries and perhaps hitting a home run with that under-the-radar guy that turns out to be the difference for an aspiring ballclub.
But the manager of a big-league club is a huge part of that calculus. Coaches in the NBA have to manage superstar personalities as there are only 5 players on the court at any given time. So when 20 percent or more of your scoring comes from one primary guy, keeping him happy and in cohesion with the other 4 teammates on the court matters somewhat less than the specific X’s and O’s of any given play or system. NFL head coaches have coordinators to call plays and manage the flow of games, and generally have the same lineups to work with game in and game out regardless of the opponent.
But managers in baseball have a job that isn’t always readily understandable by average fans (and this isn’t a knock against average fans, this author is just as mystified by the intricacies of the managerial decisions in the sport as much as anyone else). Whether it be the matchups of hitters versus batters, splits between left- and right-handed pitching, day games versus night games, Sabermetric statistics, and a million other factors that play out over 162 games, MLB managers have so many decisions to make that could have an impact on the outcome of those games.
And still, at the end of the day, those decisions, difficult as they may be, have to translate into wins. This is unfortunately where the rubber hits the road when it comes to David Bell. In 6 seasons with the Cincinnati Reds, he is 386-432 which equates to a .472 winning percentage. Other than the COVID season of 2020 Bell has 2 winning seasons with the Reds, and he’s also had a team lose 100 games.
Last year the Reds were contending for a playoff spot after losing those 100 games just the season before. They called up the likes of Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion Strand, Spencer Steer, and of course Elly De La Cruz. Those rookies did nothing except pump pure adrenaline into the city of Cincinnati as the team went 18-9 in June and then 15-11 in July. After that, though, it was a different story as they managed to go just 23-31 over their last three months of the season and fell out of playoff contention. They had a losing record at home (38-43) and also posted a losing record against other NL Central teams (21-30).
There were understandable explanations for that series of events. After all, when nearly the entirety of your core players are rookies in their 20s, the long-haul of a major league season is a tall mountain to climb. The front office also chose to largely stand pat at the trade deadline, making many fans question the extent to which the team had a true intent to do what was necessary to win. But even still, the team exceeded most reasonable expectations and so the tone moving into 2024 was one of optimism and hoping to build on the things the Reds did well in 2023.
Here at Loveland Magazine, we’ve documented the roller coaster that the 2024 season has brought us. Apart from a very disappointing May where the Reds went 9-18, they’ve had a winning record in every other month this year. They’ve dealt with injuries to key players that we all know about. But there are other more troubling statistics that are hard to ignore.
The Reds are 9-20 in one-run games and have blown 18 leads. They simply cannot build any momentum even when the door is open for them to get back into serious contention for a wild card spot. Their lack of consistency is a maddening problem that has haunted them on countless occasions this season.
Make no mistake, this is not an article calling for David Bell to be fired. The players bear responsibility as well. Several key players are playing either slightly or well below league averages, including Jeimer Candelario, Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild, and Noelvi Marte. Then there is the front office and the ownership group who are at the helm of this franchise. They control the purse strings and are responsible for providing the manager and coaches the resources to acquire, keep, and attract the players necessary to win at the big-league level. There are serious deficiencies there that should not be ignored and absolutely play a role in holding this team back.
Apart from all that, firing Bell would be a drastic decision that goes against most of what we know about the Reds front office. Last year then extended Bell for a further three years and to fire him any time soon and eat that contract money is completely out of character for them. Still, the Reds’ best chance to win significant games corresponds directly to how long Elly De La Cruz remains on their roster.
That timeframe will not last forever, and within that window Cincinnati’s margin for error remains very small. Their mandate is clear: surround Elly with the best talent that is reasonably available so that this offense can support the ace in its rotation (Hunter Greene) and the very good pitchers behind him (Abbott and Lodolo). Frankie Montas and Jeimer Candelario unfortunately do not represent the kinds of signings that Nick Krall and the Reds’ brass have to make to execute that strategy. There must be real, significant free agents brought in that will play to expectations and we cannot afford to miss for much longer.
David Bell at least deserves one season with a complete roster and a at least a majority of his key players healthy before he’s judged with finality. Absent a significant change in the Reds’ future in 2024, though, this season can’t help but be seen as a regression. Win, lose, or draw, 2025 has to be the year that will determine once and for all whether David Bell is the manager this team needs to be a playoff threat, or if it is time to start fresh and inject new blood to match the youth we’re putting out on the field.
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Christopher Ball is a longtime Loveland resident and an attorney. He graduated from Loveland High School in 2003 and was a member of the football team before going on to become a coach’s assistant at DePauw University in Greencastle, Indiana. He has been following and rooting for the Reds and Bengals since the early 1990s and has been through the many ups and downs that fandom has wrought over the years.
