Oxford, Ohio (Nov. 1, 2024) – Miami University students fielded a survey of Ohio voters from Oct. 28-30. The results show tight races. Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 49% to 46% among registered voters in the presidential race, while Sherrod Brown leads Bernie Moreno 48% to 46% in the senate race. Issue 1 also remains close with the Yes vote leading the No vote 46% to 45% with a large number of voters (9%) reporting that they are still not sure. The margin of error (which does not account for error from sampling coverage or survey language) is 5%.
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The survey was fielded by the students using a text-to-web modality. The students texted a random sample of registered voters in Ohio. The results were weighted to Ohio registered voters using education (3 categories) by sex, race (white/non-white) by sex, age (3 categories), vote history, and party registration. The latter two variables were taken from L2 voter file data.
The tables below show the results for all registered voters and then the subset of voters that reported that they either had already voted or definitely would vote.
The survey was supported by the Menard Family Center for Democracy and the Center for Career Exploration and Success at Miami University.
| Issue 1 | Reg Voters | Screened: Will Vote |
| Yes | 46% | 46% |
| No | 45% | 44% |
| Not Sure | 9% | 9% |
| N | 853 | 844 |
| MoE | 5% | 5% |
| President | Reg Voters | Screened: Will Vote |
| Donald J. Trump (Republican) | 49% | 50% |
| Kamala Harris (Democratic) | 46% | 47% |
| I’m not sure | 3% | 2% |
| Chase Oliver (Libertarian) | <1% | <1% |
| Robert J Kennedy Jr. | <1% | <1% |
| Jill Stein | <1% | <1% |
| N | 859 | 851 |
| MoE | 5% | 5% |
| Senate | Reg Voters | Screened: Will Vote |
| Sherrod Brown (Democratic) | 48% | 48% |
| Bernie Moreno (Republican) | 46% | 47% |
| Don Kissick (Libertarian) | 3% | 3% |
| I’m not sure | 2% | 2% |
| Other | <1% | <1% |
| N | 857 | 849 |
| MoE | 5% | 5% |
