by Chris Ball
Loveland, Ohio – The Roller Coaster Season Is In Danger Of Coming Off The Rails
How many different ways can one team lose a baseball game? Well, in losing 12 of their last 14 and 15 of their last 19 the Reds have certainly found many of them. And most have been in excruciating fashion.
On Monday night against the Diamondbacks it was a walk off two run single by former Red Kevin Newman and a blown save by Alexis Diaz. The Reds were in a position to walk away with a win after scoring two runs in the top of the eighth which featured a Mike Ford triple, to lead 5-4. In a stretch where their offense has struggled so mightily, scoring 5 runs off of 10 hits seemed at the time to be as refreshing as a pool of water to a man lost in a baking desert.
Time was, seeing Alexis Díaz walk out of the bullpen in such a situation was enough to give Reds fans goosebumps at the anticipation of some electric stuff and the sound of the door slamming shut on the opposition.
But not this night.
Diaz proceeded to hit the first man he faced and walked the next two to load the bases with one out in the bottom of the ninth inning, before eventually surrendering the game winning hit to Newman. It was a troubling sign of the inconsistency and unreliability that has plagued this roster all season. The numbers simply look bleak, there is no way around it.
Starting with Díaz, he converted his first 22 save chances last season and 37 overall. While his blown save on Monday was only his second in nine opportunities, the more conceding issue is that he has a 6.75 ERA in 16 appearances. In 14 2/3 innings this season, Díaz has allowed 12 walks and has hit three batters. This means that since August 1, 2023 Alexis Diaz has more walks + hit batters than he has strikeouts or innings pitched. Though plenty of Reds are struggling this year the issues with their closer is magnified due to the fact that they are likely going to play in a significant number of close games this year. With an offense that scores so infrequently, they cannot afford to have their go-to closer have games like Monday’s slip through his fingers.
Losing such games is yet another disturbing trend for the 2024 Reds. They have both the most 1-run losses (9) and also the fewest 1-run wins (1). This only got worse after Wednesday’s 2-1 loss, unfortunately. Last season it was a much different story for the “Rally Reds” where they had 34 one-run wins which was the most in all of baseball. While injuries have ravaged this team (especially with the crippling announcement that TJ Friedl will miss 4-5 weeks with a fractured thumb, after just coming off the IL from a wrist injury) the magic just seems to be missing from this version of the team, at times.
And then, you get a result like we saw on Tuesday night, a 6-2 victory over those same (very hot) Diamondbacks, where the Reds remind you what they can do in a more complete way. Will Benson hit a 2 run home run, Tyler Stephenson had 3 hits, Candalario and Fraley chipped in with two apiece. 9 different Reds collected hits on Tuesday night and the team scored their most runs in their last 15 games. When combined with a very efficient outing from Hunter Greene (2 runs, 5 hits, 5 strikeouts and only one walk) and a lockdown bullpen effort, it’s just about enough to give us you hope, especially as the Reds are 13-1 this season when scoring at least six runs.
Then, just as fast as the hope manifested, it evaporated Wednesday afternoon. The Reds wasted a beautiful outing from Andrew Abbott in which he gave up just 1 run on 4 hits with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts in 7 innings. The offense again managed only one run off of three hits against a pitcher whose ERA was over 4 coming into the game.
The loss was charged to Fernando Cruz who, like Alexis Díaz, has had some frustrating moments this year, but on balance has been one of the Reds’ most reliable bullpen arms. Cruz was able to get two outs on Wednesday but allowed a double to Pavin Smith who was immediately driven in by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for the eventual game winning run. It was yet another hair pulling close loss that makes you wonder when the pain of this brutal stretch of play will end.
Reds fans, myself included, have previously fallen back on the phrase “it’s early” when trying to hold out hope that the struggles and poor play was simply a phase and not a sign of a deeper, creeping malignancy within the team this year. There was always a belief that at some point the Reds might reach a turnaround, whether it be a key player catching fire, someone like Friedl returning from injury, or a promotion like Mike Ford helping light a much-needed spark, and that it would happen before the season slipped away.
The hour grows late, unfortunately.
The team sits 7 games under .500 and 8 games back of the division-leading Brewers, 43 games into the season, with a record of 18-25. By comparison, the Reds’ last five 41-game starts (and finishes):
- 2023: 18-23 (82-80)
- 2022: 12-29 (62-100)
- 2021: 19-22 (83-79)
- 2020: 18-23 (31-29)
- 2019: 18-23 (75-87)
Though the Bell era has never been known for stellar starts, the 18 wins the Reds have this year seem as though they are a bit of a letdown from the talent and ability level the players possess, injuries or not. Fans are understandably angry about the lack of signs of progress and they’ve had plenty of mediocrity to deal with over the years. Since Castellini took over the “majority share” holder in 2006, 17 years:
- 1354-1501 (Win % .474)
- 2 NL Central Titles
- 4 playoff appearances (2-7, collapse to Giants, swept by Phillies)
- They have averaged 4th place in the NL Central under his tenure.
Keeping faith isn’t easy and it’s understandable that Reds fans are angry with the product on the field. But there are signs of life.
As of Tuesday, May 14th, the Reds batting average is second worst in the league at .217 but their barrel percentage is 18th, they are 21st in hard hit percentage, and 4th in exit velocity. Thus, for as bad as their results behind the dish have been, it’s not all due to the fact that the swings and contact that they’ve made is “bad”. The foundation for a more serviceable offense is there and all it could take is a little more luck to break it open. So I personally believe it’s “still early” to stick a fork in the year, but that clock might strike midnight soon if the Reds can’t start winning games like they lost on Monday. Like much about baseball, getting back on the right track can’t be done overnight. If it happens it will be a painful and piecemeal incremental process that will depend on the rotation staying solid and getting a significant output from Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz. It certainly helps that Jeimer Candelario is playing better, hitting .297 with 11 hits, a homer, 7 RBIs and 3 runs in his last 10 games (not counting Tuesday’s very good outing). If he can elevate his play, with how off he appeared to be early on, there is no doubt that other Reds can follow suit and weather the current storm of a brutal schedule and stop the bleeding.
If not, it could be a long summer in Cincinnati without meaningful Reds baseball on the docket at Great American Ballpark.
Christopher Ball is a longtime Loveland resident and an attorney. He graduated from Loveland High School in 2003 and was a member of the football team before going on to become a coach’s assistant at DePauw University in Greencastle, Indiana. He has been following and rooting for the Reds and Bengals since the early 1990s and has been through the many ups and downs that fandom has wrought over the years.
by Chris Ball
The other important point to consider for De La Cruz is how his game has improved just over the course of the early part of the season. He’s cut his strikeout rate from 50 percent to 30 percent and increased his walk rate up to around 15 percent when it had been as low as 5 percent. Though Elly’s other hitting numbers may pop off the page a bit more, the evolution of his plate discipline is what makes those numbers possible.
His offense isn’t the only thing getting better. It was difficult to watch Elly muff routine ground balls or sail easy throws during the first few games of the season. But that all seems like a distant memory, far in the rear view, as we watch him play now. His 
There are legitimate questions in 2024 about which Reds players get the majority of the playing time and which ones are asked to accept a smaller or a platoon role, or even spend time back in the minor leagues, at least to start the season. Having so many talented guys is not a bad problem to have at the end of the day. However, that is for the most part best expressed if the team is fully healthy.
