Photo of National League All-Stars Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Green in Arlington for the All-Star game by Cincinnati Reds on X
by Chris Ball
MLB All-Star Game presented by Mastercard: Tuesday on FOX (8 p.m. ET)
Loveland, Ohio – As the first half of the 2024 Major League Baseball season is in the books, the Cincinnati Reds sit at 47-50, 8 games out of first place in the division and 3 games out of the last wild card spot in the National League. Its certainly not the half season that most Reds fans were hoping for, but then again, the circumstances have been far from ideal. When you factor in all of the adversity this team has gone through, sitting just 3 games under .500 and still within striking distance of a postseason birth may not be all that devastating.
Injuries have undoubtedly played a role in the team’s struggles. TJ Friedl has just 97 at bats, Christian Encarnacion Strand had just 116 before being injured. Ian Gibaut has not yet pitched this year, Matt McLain has not seen the field, and Nick Lodolo has missed several starts. All of this is on top of Noelvi Marte’s suspension, which has unquestionably impacted his ability to contribute positively to this team.
While it is true that teams like the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers have also been negatively impacted by serious injuries to key players, the Reds are honestly a step behind both those contending clubs in terms of roster depth. A great deal of things were going to have to go right for Cincinnati to be towards the top of the division this year, most of that focusing on staying healthy and having players perform at or above their 2023 numbers. The Reds simply have not been able to do the former this year and with their bench players underperforming and their younger players (for the most part) not yet ready for the major leagues, they have struggled to be consistent, especially hitting.
The Reds are 26th in batting average, 20th in on base percentage, and 16th in slugging. Their ability to hit the baseball hard has helped them to score 432 runs (good for 14th), and their speed on the basepaths (they lead the major leagues with 134 stolen bases) have kept them in many games this year. Although we all remember the various base running issues that have also cost them at times, the speed of this team is an important component of their success that cannot be ignored.
You cannot mention speed without acknowledging the potentially generational talent on display in the Reds’ All-Star Elly De La Cruz. At just 22 years old he has an astonishing 4.4 WAR and WRC+ of 127, which is very good in terms of comparable major league players. All of this has resulted in a .256 batting average with 17 home runs (with 42 total extra base hits) and 43 RBIs. And he leads the league with 46 stolen bases and has made plays at shortstop that most players can only dream of executing (he is an amazing 8 outs above average on defense). We are truly watching the creation of a legend for this team if Elly’s progress continues on this trajectory, and he is perhaps the most electrifying Reds player to wear the uniform in the past 20 plus years.
There have been other aspects of the Reds offense to be thankful for, none other than Jonathan India. Many thought it was the same story on Cincinnati’s second baseman to start the year as he filled in for Matt McLain. India batted just .228 in March/April and then .220 in May. But no one could imagine the June that he would have, batting .380 with 16 RBIs. He raised his average over 40 points during the course of his first half, and currently has a 2.4 WAR and a 125 WRC+, numbers that are excellent for a guy many expected to be a platoon bat and not an everyday player.
There are a lot of honorable mentions to be made, including Spencer Steer (.242/.337/.441) and Tyler Stephenson (.245/.317/.438). Both have shown flashes of great offense at times though they’ve also had their fair share of struggles. Getting a healthy TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley back will no doubt have a huge impact as well.
But the major wild card in all of these is the level at which rookie phenomenon Rece Hinds can continue to produce in the outfield for the Reds. You’ve heard all the stats and records, but here it is again in brief. 7 games, a .423 batting average, 11 hits, 3 doubles, a triple, and 5 home runs. 11 RBIs and a 1.192 slugging percentage. These are unreal numbers that have generated a 341 WRC+ in that small sample size (as a reference, Aaron Judge has a WRC+ of 207 over the entire season). If Hinds can capture even a small fraction of that lightning in the second half of the season Cincinnati’s major problems in the outfield might get a little less complicated to solve.
Another saving grace of the 2024 Reds’ first half has been its starting pitching. Overall, they are 12th in team ERA and 11th in batting average allowed. Hunter Greene is leading the way in establishing himself as the team ace. Greene is 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA. His advanced metrics show a WAR of 2.6 and FIP of 3.63, both very solid numbers that show he is improving over prior years. His whiff rate (30.1) and strikeout rate (27.6) are very good and not surprising given how powerful he is. Andrew Abbott is right there with him, posting an eye-popping 9 wins in the first half of the year. Nick Lodolo has also made a very strong showing, going 8-3 with a 3.33 ERA.
The 2023 Reds went on a tear prior to the All-Star break and that break may have cooled them off a bit. In 2024 the story is different, as injuries abound and the rest as a result the Midsummer Classic may aid in their return. When the season starts again, the lineup and rotation are relatively set in terms of the major players who will be there to contribute. The health of those players and whether they can remain consistent from game to game or even series to series will be the most important building blocks of getting back into contention.
Getting back to .500 is in reach, and getting above that number is absolutely possible if the Reds avoid prolonged losing streaks that plagued them at times in the first part of the year. With so many great starters it means that Cincinnati should almost always at least have a foundation to be competitive on any given day. If the bats can do just enough to get runners on, the team’s speed and power should be enough to get the wins we need to get back into things.
The Reds face the 15th ranked remaining strength of schedule, in the middle of the league. Their opponents have a .502 winning percentage. While it’s no cakewalk, it does mean that there are favorable matchups ahead that could help them creep back towards a wild card spot.
Let’s hope the Reds take the rest they need because the second half of this year is calling, and it’s time to throw caution to the wind and go for broke in 2024.
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Christopher Ball is a longtime Loveland resident and an attorney. He graduated from Loveland High School in 2003 and was a member of the football team before going on to become a coach’s assistant at DePauw University in Greencastle, Indiana. He has been following and rooting for the Reds and Bengals since the early 1990s and has been through the many ups and downs that fandom has wrought over the years.
Even Graham Ashcraft did his part in his start in game 3 against the Tigers, giving up just one earned run before the Reds relievers once again let the bottom fall out. This time the culprit was Alexis Diaz who allowed three runs (although none of them ended up being earned) which ultimately put the game out of reach on Sunday.
On Monday night we got to see the stellar debut of Reds outfielder Rece Hinds who did nothing less than launch a galactic 449 foot home run after making an athletic play in the outfield and legging out a hustle double. Elly De La Cruz scored a run on a contact play from third base, a series of events that was nearly identical to the out made by Dunn just a few days ago. It’s a microcosm of this season for Cincinnati: two of the same plays, with an entirely different result.
The concern is that the flaws in this team are growing too large to reasonably ignore. Injuries or not, Stuart Fairchild, Nick Martini, and Will Benson have been staples in the outfield for large chunks this season. Unfortunately they are batting .224, .212, and .187 respectively. There is simply no way to be a serious playoff contender with those numbers in your lineup on a regular basis. Though trading for a reliable outfield bat would be an important way to show fans that this team is serious about trying to contend, but to be honest one bat may not be nearly enough.