LOVELAND MAGAZINE

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Tag: vaccination rates

  • Expert: Hard to know if COVID variant will surge in U.S. or how badly

    Expert: Hard to know if COVID variant will surge in U.S. or how badly

    BY: MARTY SCHLADEN – Ohio Capital Journal

    The last thing people want to hear right now is that the coronavirus might have mutated yet again into yet another deadly variant, extending the pain, death, and inconvenience of a pandemic that we long hoped would be over.

    However, whether the subvariant of omicron known as BA.2 will hit the United States as hard as it’s hitting other parts of the world is hard to say at this point, an expert at modeling the disease said Wednesday.

    The pandemic has been full of unpleasant surprises and BA.2 is no exception. Scientists estimate that it’s one-and-a-half times as transmissible as the original omicron strain, BA.1, and is overtaking it.

    Europe, and particularly the United Kingdom, have seen an increase in the new variant in recent months, but that hasn’t been the case everywhere, said Stephen Kissler, a research fellow in the Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases of Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

    “The question of if and when a surge is coming and how large is very open,” Kissler said in a Zoom conference with reporters. “I know that we’ve seen surges that are dominated by BA.2 across much of Europe. But in contrast, for example, in South Africa we saw a major BA.1 wave — that’s where we saw the omicron wave first — and now there’s a lot of circulation of BA.2, but it hasn’t really caused an increase in cases so much that it’s lengthened the decline and given the epidemic a very long tail.”

    Kissler explained that vaccination rates in the U.S. are lower than those in Europe, but higher than those in South Africa. That could mean that more Americans have developed antibodies against the omicron variants than have Europeans.

    “To the extent that that gives us protection against BA.2 we might see dynamics that are more similar to what happened in South Africa,” he said.

    Seasonality and other factors likely will play a role, Kissler said, with spring in the United States being a season of relatively low spread and fall a season of relatively high spread.

    So if there is a surge here of the new variant, how will it affect Americans of varying ages?

    “In many ways it will likely resemble our experience with COVID-19 up to this point,” Kissler said.

    And past experience has shown one factor to be hugely important: vaccination. 

    Kissler said that being vaccinated, along with a booster dose, “really goes a long way toward helping to protect you from symptomatic disease and especially severe disease. The biggest delineation I imagine seeing is that people who are boosted will probably fare better than people who are unboosted.”

    Another important factor is age, with the elderly having less natural resistance to all variants of the coronavirus than the young. Vaccines and boosters, though, can be a great equalizer.

    “A vaccinated and boosted person over the age of 75, their risk is probably on the order of — if not lower than — an unvaccinated 20-year-old,” Kissler said.

    COVID eventually will go from being a pandemic disease that spikes rapidly and overwhelms resources to an endemic one where a background level is present, sickening and even killing people, but in semi-predictable ways. Sadly, however, hopes that it will disappear altogether are small.

    Looking forward, one simple public-health measure might be most effective, Kissler said.

    “In many ways, one of the best things we can do to manage outbreaks is to just to continue to keep informing people how much COVID is circulating in their communities and make it just as accessible as a weather report,” he said. “A lot of data suggest that people tend to adjust their behavior accordingly.”

    He said that probably won’t be enough to quell future waves of COVID, or be adequate in the face of major new variants.

    “But as we continue to deal with COVID and we think about this permanent circulation of COVID-19 in the population — recognizing that there’s going to be different dynamics in different places, different patterns across the year — making it clear what’s happening in any given community at any given time through passive surveillance is probably the best thing we can do right now,” he said.

  • COVID-19 rises again in an undervaccinated Ohio

    COVID-19 rises again in an undervaccinated Ohio

    Photo by John Moore | Getty Images.

    BY: JAKE ZUCKERMAN – Ohio Capital Journal (Local dated added by Loveland Magazine)

    COVID-19 cases are once again ascendant in the 10th least vaccinated state in the nation.

    State data shows infection rates are climbing and the workloads are reupping at hospitals, where more than 2,700 Ohioans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19.

    An analysis of state data shows that 11 months into the vaccine rollout, the ground is still fertile for outbreaks all around Ohio. Of 88 counties in the Buckeye State, only Delaware (71% vaccinated) surpasses the national vaccination rate of 68.5%. In 58 counties, less than half the population is vaccinated, according to data as of Sunday.

    Ranked by state, Ohio (56% vaccinated) is the 10th least-vaccinated in the country, according to data from The New York Times.

    In Henry County, a rural swath of northwest Ohio, COVID-19 is spreading at more than twice the statewide rate of about 400 infections per 100,0000 residents. About 52% of residents are vaccinated. Health Commissioner Joy Ermie said the spread is not specific to any outbreak or location, it’s just swimming through homes and social events of mostly unvaccinated people.

    “The quicker we turn this around, the quicker we’ll see a decrease in our cases,” she said. “It will be a forever cycle if we cannot increase our overall vaccination rates.”

    Public health workers in coronavirus-sieged counties said in interviews for this article that it’s time to start accepting that COVID-19 is likely here to stay in some form or fashion, absent a paradigm shift on vaccination.

    Several indicated a circular pattern in vaccination; the unvaccinated, by and large, are staying unvaccinated. The vaccinated are fortifying their immune system with booster doses.

    “I would absolutely love to say COVID is over in X [number of] months,” Ermie said. “But I feel much more confident that we should take our energy away from, ‘How is this going to end?’ to ‘How can we learn to live with it?’”

     Gavin Smits receives a first dose of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine. (Photo by David Ryder/Getty Images)

    Federal authorities approved the use of vaccines on children aged 5-11 earlier this month, which will likely jumpstart vaccination rates to some extent. In north-central Ohio’s Seneca County, a population of roughly 55,000 people, about 47% of residents are vaccinated. The county’s case rate is nearly twice the statewide average.

    About 20 children were vaccinated at a clinic last Tuesday night, according to county health commissioner Anne Goon. She said there hasn’t been any mad rush on vaccines, but she was happy with Tuesday’s crowd.

    She said adults in the community have bristled with vaccines, masks, and assorted infection control policy responses to the pandemic. Some parents have refused to have their kids tested after they’re exposed to the coronavirus at school, she said, even if it’s required for an after-school sport.

    “We have a portion of our population that just doesn’t think COVID is real,” Goon said. “That it’s just a hoax.”

    To Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff, Ohio’s top doctor and director of the state health department, the state is “approaching” a point in the pandemic where coronavirus becomes more of a nuisance than threat to the public welfare. We’re not there yet though as the extra-transmissible delta variant of the coronavirus “relentlessly” seeks out the unvaccinated, he said.

    “In some circumstances, what is driving what we’re seeing is low vaccination rates in some communities,” he said. “So we have to continue to focus on the importance of vaccination.”

    Vanderhoff, speaking to reporters Friday, offered a more optimistic take on Ohio’s vaccination rate. Among Ohio adults, more than 2 in 3 have now received at least one dose of vaccination. The COVID-19 vaccination rate, he said, has surpassed the rate of Ohioans who get their annual flu shot. It pales in comparison to vaccination against disease like measles or polio, but those vaccines have been around longer and are (mostly) legally required to enroll in school.

    Despite Vanderhoff’s optimism, hospitalizations for COVID-19 have increased across every age group over the last week. For people aged 30-39, who are less vaccinated than their elder counterparts, hospitalizations leapt 48% in that time frame. More than 2,700 Ohioans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, up from less than 2,200 earlier this month.

    John Palmer, a spokesman for the Ohio Hospital Association, said the statewide COVID-19 patient census has been increasing by about 60 patients daily as of late.

    “Hospitals are operating at high-capacity levels with workforce challenges and any surge will have a devastating impact leading to disruption of health care access for communities,” he said. “Despite three safe, approved and effective vaccines available today to stop this virus we continue to see spread and it’s frustrating to respond to a virus that is preventable.”

    All told over about 20 pandemic months, more than 25,600 Ohioans have died from COVID-19, part of the U.S.’ 762,000 dead. More than 82,000 Ohioans have been hospitalized, including more than 10,000 who required ICU care. A staggering 1.6 million Ohioans have been infected with COVID-19.

    Data on infections that “break through” the vaccines’ protection is limited, but available evidence suggests it’s a rare occurrence. CDC research shows vaccination decreases the risk of infection by a factor of five; the vaccines are between 88% and 93% effective in preventing hospitalization; and months’ worth of data shows there’s no increased risk for mortality among vaccine recipients. Since Jan. 1 in Ohio, fewer than 5% of people hospitalized or dead from COVID-19 were vaccinated.

    Mark Cameron, an immunologist at Case Western Reserve University, is not surprised by COVID-19’s resurgence. Even highly vaccinated states like Vermont (82% vaccine started) are wrestling with outbreaks. In Ohio, cold weather makes respiratory viruses more spreadable and drives humans to gather inside instead of outside.

    “It’s absolutely unacceptable to operate in a space in which 50-60% of the people are unvaccinated,” he said.

    He expressed frustration with a sense of complacency from the public whenever the coronavirus ebbs, and an unwillingness to acknowledge the predictable patterns of disease spread based on low vaccine coverage, weather and human behavior.

    “I don’t know what unique to say at this point,” he said. “Here we are risking another impact on our holiday season through sickness, hospitalization and death.”

    Hamiolton County Public Health 11-16-2021

    November 16

    Warren County Health Services reported 62 additional COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, along with 60 recoveries. Health Services is monitoring 493 active COVID cases as of Tuesday, 471 of them involving mild illness.

    Thirteen (13) people are hospitalized as of Tuesday, one (1) fewer than Monday. One (1) is critically ill, and the remainder have moderate illness. Nine (9) others are moderately ill outside of the hospital.

    All but two (2) of Tuesday’s cases involved community spread of COVID-19, as two (2) were reported in a skilled nursing facility.

    Warren County Health Services continues to see a significant spike in COVID-19 transmission, with the majority of its new cases arising from workplace exposures, family/household exposures and indoor events/gatherings as the highly transmissible Delta variant remains involved with virtually all local cases.

    Sixteen (16) of Tuesday’s cases involved individuals who had been fully vaccinated. Cumulatively as of Tuesday, 1,086 of 44,513 fully vaccinated Warren County residents have tested positive for COVID-19. To date, 1,027 of 1,086 had mild illness, while 41 became moderately ill, two (2) seriously ill and one (1) critically ill. Fifteen (15) passed away, all of them elderly and/or with extensive health issues, seven (7) of them at nursing homes.