by Chris Ball
Loveland, Ohio – Watching the Bengals’ second half lead evaporate last week against the Baltimore Ravens felt very familiar. The first 30 minutes of that contest showed so much of what makes Cincinnati football special. Joe Burrow was locked in, the defense was keeping Lamar Jackson from having an explosive game, and they were up by 14 in the third quarter on the road.
Then, it all came crashing down. Up two touchdowns the Bengals forced a Ravens punt. They looked to add to their lead, but Chase Brown had the ball ripped out of his hands. Baltimore recovered and then went on to score, and we all know how the game played out from there.
That being said there were some positives to take away from that game. The defense played much better in spurts and showed that they are capable of containing a good team, even if it was for just one half. Cincinnati again proved that it refuses to give up even when things look bleak. Ja’Marr Chase’s two fourth-quarter touchdowns (including one for 70 yards) are plenty of evidence of that.
It was a heartbreaking loss, but one that by still does not yet represent the final nail in the Bengals’ playoff hopes just yet. As outlined by the folks over at Stripe Hype Cincinnati’s chances of making the postseason still stand at around 36 percent. The game against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football this week, though, represents a major fork in the road for this team. According to the projections, “with a win over the Chargers, Cincinnati’s playoff odds will jump up to 53 percent, which means that it would be more likely than not that they would qualify for postseason play at that point. However, with a loss the Bengals’ playoff odds would drop down to 22 percent.” That is a major swing in odds that underscores the importance of this week’s game.
With that in mind it’s important to take a look at the Chargers and what matchups the Bengals could potentially exploit in order to keep the playoff odds in their favor.
The Chargers offense is towards the bottom third in the league in several categories. They are 21st in yards per game and 19th in points. They are about even in terms of how effective they are through the ground and in the air, coming in 22nd in passing yards per game and 19th in rushing.
Justin Herbert throws for just 209 yards per game (22nd in the league) but his QBR is 11th. This is largely because he has completed 66 percent of his passes and has only one interception to his credit against 11 touchdowns. It’s clear how the Chargers plan on winning games. It’s the Jim Harbaugh way that I am personally very familiar with after watching so many of his games in Ann Arbor as head coach of the Wolverines. His teams are stingy with turnovers and play monster defense. This both controls the clock and allows the Chargers to dictate the pace of the game.
And that defense is every bit as good as advertised. The numbers are daunting. Los Angeles allows the fewest yards per game in the league (302) and the fewest points per game (13). While other defenses may have better numbers in terms of stopping the rush or the pass, the Chargers are a more complete defense in that they are in the top 10 in the league in shutting down both. Only 23.2 percent of the Chargers’ opponent’s drives end in a score of some kind, again, tops in the league.
The Bengals offensive line has increasingly struggled these past few weeks and the task does not get any easier on Sunday night. The Chargers are tied for fourth in total sacks. When you combine that with one of the best pass defenses in terms of expected points contributed (2nd in the league at 26.1) it could be very difficult for this line to hold up long enough for Burrow to connect with his wide receivers, talented though they may be.
The Chargers offense doesn’t put points up in bunches. They don’t necessarily have major weapons at the receiver position. Ladd McConkey is their leading pass catcher and averages just 54 yards per game (compare that to Ja’Marr Chase’s 98 yards per game). Running back J.K. Dobbins is solid, putting up 74 yards per game with a 4.8 yards per carry figure.
You can be sure that Jim Harbaugh knows the Bengals’ weaknesses on defense, which include in the secondary and against the run. Those flaws play well into the Chargers’ gameplan and don’t really matchup well with what Los Angeles’ main goal will be: to keep Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow off the field for as much of the game as possible. Then, when they are on the field, suffocate them and bottle them up in any way they can.
Another loss might realistically end this season for the Bengals, and the Chargers will be looking to put Cincinnati to bed Sunday night in front of a national audience. If Burrow and the offense can stay patient, exploit the opportunities that present themselves (there may not be many), and count on their defense to buckle down in the red zone and perhaps force some field goal attempts rather than touchdowns, this team can walk away with a win on the west coast.
And if they do, the numbers could certainly swing their way.
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Christopher Ball is a longtime Loveland resident and an attorney. He graduated from Loveland High School in 2003 and was a member of the football team before going on to become a coach’s assistant at DePauw University in Greencastle, Indiana. He has been following and rooting for the Reds and Bengals since the early 1990s and has been through the many ups and downs that fandom has wrought over the years.
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